The Advantages and Disadvantages of "Trend Following"
Advantages:
The benefit of trend following
is simply this: You will never miss a major move of any market. If the market
you are watching turns from a down to an up direction, any
trend following indicator must flash a "buy" signal. It's just a question
of when to buy. If it's a major move, you will get the signal. The more long
term the
trend following indicators are, the lower the transaction costs—a
specific advantage of
trend following.
Strategically, the investor must realize
that if he or she can get on board a major move in almost any market, the
profits from just one trade can be considerable. In fact, one trade can make
your whole year. Thus, the reliability of one's strategy can be far below 50
percent and you'll still show a profit. This is because the average size of the
trader’s winning trades is so much greater than the size of his losing trades.
Disadvantages:
The drawback of trend
following is that your indicator cannot detect the difference between a
major money-making move and a short-lived unprofitable move. As a result, trend
followers often get whipsawed as trend-following signals immediately turn
against them, causing small losses to occur. Multiple whipsaws can add up,
creating concern for the trend follower and tempting him or her to abandon the
strategy. Most markets spend a
large amount of time in non trending conditions. Trending periods could be as
little as 15 to 25 percent of the time. Yet the trend follower must be willing
to trade in these unfavorable markets in order not to miss the big trend.
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